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Climate Scenario Analysis and Emerging Regulatory Standards
Executive Summary
On 29 August 2024, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) published an article highlighting the significance of climate scenario analysis in financial institutions, particularly in the context of emerging regulatory standards. The increasing awareness of climate change as a global risk has led to a need for more advanced methods of assessing potential financial impacts. Climate Scenario analysis provides a forward – looking approach, which is crucial in navigating the uncertain landscape of climate – related risks. The recent publication of the BIS emphasizes the growing challenges associated with the adoption of these methods. To address these challenges and enhance transparency, regulatory bodies such as the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) have introduced new standards, which aim to improve the quality of climate – related disclosures.
Introduction
The increasing awareness of climate change as a critical global issue has prompted financial institutions and regulators to reassess their risk management frameworks. Climate scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool in this effort, allowing institutions to explore potential impacts of climate – related risks under various future scenarios. Unlike conventional risk assessments based on historical data, this method provides a forward – looking approach, enabling the financial sector to anticipate and prepare for the uncertain and evolving nature of climate change. By utilizing climate scenario analysis, supervisors can evaluate how climate risks may affect both individual financial institutions and the stability of the financial system. As the urgency to address these risks grows, regulators are prioritizing climate scenario analysis to ensure the sector’s resilience against long – term environmental challenges, as well as to meet new regulatory and disclosure requirements aimed to enhancing transparency.
Challenges in conducting Climate Scenario Analysis
Conducting climate scenario analysis faces several challenges, primarily related to data availability, consistency and granularity. Institutions often lack sufficient data to fully evaluate counterparties’ exposure to climate risks, such as greenhouse emissions, which can limit their ability to manage transition risks effectively. Moreover, the complexity of modeling climate – economy relationships add further difficulties in obtaining accurate assessments, especially over long-time horizons. To address these challenges, the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) has developed standardized climate scenarios, providing supervisors with frameworks to assess financial risks from climate change. However, even with such frameworks, integrating climate data into financial analysis remains complex and recourse – intensive.
Emerging Regulatory Standards
To support the growing use of climate scenario analysis, new international reporting standards have been developed. The International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) recently published the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) S1 and S2, aiming to bridge some of the data gaps by requiring financial institutions to disclose sustainability and climate – related financial information.
- IFRS S1 established general requirements for disclosing sustainability – related financial information, helping institutions to better communicate their exposure to climate – related risks. More specifically, IFRS S1 requires an entity to disclose information about sustainability – related risks and opportunities that could reasonably be expected to affect the entity’s cash flows, its access to finance or cost of capital over the short, medium or long term.
- IFRS S2 specifically addresses climate – related disclosures, including the impact of climate risks on financial performance and the measures taken to mitigate these risks. Companies should perform scenario analysis to explain how various climate-related events may impact the business in the future.
These standards are expected to enhance transparency, consistency and comparability in climate – related reporting, aiding both investors and regulators in assessing the climate resilience of financial institutions. An overview of the Standards is outlined in the article by Sarah Carroll, here.
Conclusion
The increasing use of climate scenario analysis, alongside the introduction of standards like IFRS S1 and S2, highlights the importance of a unified global approach to managing climate – related financial risks. International collaboration is key to developing a regulatory framework that balances the need for global consistency with local adaptations. By cooperating across borders, financial institutions and regulators can strengthen climate risk management and foster a more resilient global financial system.
The challenges associated with conducting climate scenario analysis emphasize the need for continues development of frameworks and the refinement of standards. As climate change remains an evolving threat, financial institutions must remain agile and adaptable, ensuring that their risk management strategies keep pace with environmental and regulatory shifts.
